Did stolen bases really hurt us last season???

If you are a Padre fan I’m sure you are aware of the motto that some of our pitchers live by. “You don’t need to put that much of an emphasis in holding the runners on base. Focus on the batter and get him out and you have nothing to worry about.” In an article posted on the Padres website back in May ’07 ( Notes: Young not bothered by steals ), Chris Young stated that Greg Maddux told him on average only 17% of runners who steal a base will eventually go on to score. When I read that comment I honestly had no clue how accurate that statement was, but then again who am I to argue with a 4 time Cy Young winner with 347 career wins. But as the people kept calling into the radio stations, writing into the newspapers and posting on message boards complaining day after day about stolen bases costing us games, I had to know for sure (it’s not like something such as FACTS would stop most of them from complaining anyways). So I finally buckled down and went through every single box score from 2007 and found all the stolen bases allowed and how many of those runners eventually went on to score. Upon first look the results seemed to differ from what Maddux had stated. But before I get to those let’s check out the X-factor in this situation…..the catcher’s.

Josh Bard —121 SB and threw out 10 runners w/.076 CS% (Career.195)
Michael Barrett — 40 SB and threw out 7 runners w/.149 CS % (Career.226)
Rob Bowen — 23 SB and threw out 3 runners w/.115 CS% (Career.111)
Pete LaForest — 5 SB and threw out 0 runners w/.000 CS% (Career.200)

So with the exception of Bowen all of the catchers were way below their career norms in throwing out runners. Not to mention Bard led all of baseball with 121 stolen bases allowed despite playing in 218 2/3 LESS innings than the 2nd place Jason Kendall (111 SB). I can see 1 or 2 catchers having an off year but not all 4. So I guess that leaves us with the pitchers then right? Let’s take a look at those totals now…..

1st Half—–92 SB—33 EVR—.359
2nd Half—-97 SB—43 EVR—.443
Total——-189 SB—76 EVR—.402
*EVR=Eventual Runs Scored*

So slightly over 40% of all the runners who stole a base against the Padres eventually went on to score this year. That’s quite a difference from the 17% Greg Maddux had told Chris Young. But wait there has to be more to this right? What happens when a guy steals 2nd and then the very next batter hits a home run? That steal becomes unimportant because that runner would have scored regardless of being on 1st, 2nd or 3rd. That’s why I factored in my three base advancement stat. Whether it be a HR, a 3B or a 2B and 1B it doesn’t matter, as long as there were 3 base advancements after the stolen base, then that runner would have scored anyways thus making the stolen base obsolete.

1st Half Stats

2nd Half Stats

So during the 2007 season the San Diego Padres allowed 189 stolen bases. Of those 189 stolen bases, 76 eventually went on to score (EVR). Of those 76 EVR’s 40 of them would have scored anyways (via 3 base advancements). Another wards roughly 19.0% of the runners who stole a base eventually went on to score. Pretty darn close to the statement Maddux made in the begining of the season. Of course my 3 base advancement system does not factor in a speedy runner such as Pierre, Reyes or Furcal scoring from 2nd on a single (which is likely in most cases) so that may have brought the total down to around 17.0% or lower. They had a record of 19-36 in games in which a run was scored after a stolen base and of those 36 loses 12 were 1-run games. And in 7 of those games the runners would have scored anyways giving us a whopping total of 5 games in which the stolen base possibly had a negative effect on the outcome of the game……yes you heard it right 5 out of 163 games the stolen base may have cost us a game. So for all those people who believe that the stolen base can make or break games it really only hurt us in 3% of the games we played last year. But then again those are just stats and facts who would believe those?