Comments on: Did stolen bases really hurt us last season???

By: sdpads1

sdpads1 — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 16:13:36 +0000

Hey Marty thanks for the feedback but I think you fail to see the overall picture of this post as well as misunderstood the comments Maddux was making. First of all he says not to worry about the base runners and focus on the batter….which makes perfect sense to me….you get the batter out then there is no way that runner will score whether he is on first, second or third. You can steal 2nd or steal 3rd all you want but stealing home is another thing. And he says “runners who steal a base” not “all runners” like you mention. Second I am a big fan of tangotiger.net (thanks MB) and yes I have seen that chart before. Regardless this is a Padres blog and I did my research on the 2007 Padres (makes sense doesn’t it?) and the stats speak for themselves…..I didn’t make up steals or runs scored or runners thrown out….they actually happened last year. Was it a Mad Dog fluke that the one season he makes those comments it is the one season the results are extremely close? Possibly. It is a very small sample size going off of one season but there was no way I was going to do more than one season because that took me forever….I’m working on this year though as we speak so maybe at the end of the year the results will be much higher and then again maybe not.

Thanks for reading.

By: Marty Winn

Marty Winn — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 14:13:56 +0000

Hopefully the chart is better formatted here:

RUN EXPECTANCY CHART
OUTS

By: Marty Winn

Marty Winn — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 14:12:40 +0000

Maddux made it up. It is not accurate. More than 17% of all baserunners score, much more for those on 2B or 3B

Have you ever seen this chart? I’ll explain it down below.
RUN EXPECTANCY CHART
OUTS

RUNNERS 0 1 2———————————- 0.5165 0.2796 0.10751– 0.8968 0.5487 0.2370-2- 1.1385 0.6911 0.3502
12- 1.4693 0.9143 0.4433–3 1.5120 0.9795 0.37181-3 1.8228 1.1830 0.4931-23 2.0363 1.4144 0.6073123 2.3109 1.5279 0.7485
If you have a runner on only 2B the likelyhood is that you will score .35 runs if there are 2 outs, .69 if 1 out and 1.14 if no outs. The numbers go up for man on 2B or 2B and 3B.

Here is where Maddux gets close to being right. If there is a man on 1B who steals 2B the avg runs scored in the inning goes from .89 to 1.13 a 0.24 increase, with one out the increas is .15 runs with 2 outs it is .12 runs. Average all those out situations and you might come up with 0.17 run increase when giving up a steal of 2B. For stealing 3B it would be .38, .28, and .02 depending on 0,1,or 2 outs. That probably averages out a bit higher. Of course there are also double steals and lead runner only in 1st and 2nd situation stealing or stealing home but these are pretty rare cases.

There is also a chart at: http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902score.html that shows the chances of scoring just 1 run (does that particular runner score and how often?). This chart is particularly useful in extra innings where 1 run wins the game. Also I want to note that these charts change from year to year and park to park depending on scoring environment.

Shining the Light,
Marty Winn

By: sdpads1

sdpads1 — Tue, 18 Dec 2007 18:40:28 +0000

First of all I’m not understanding what point you are trying to make? But according to that last line it makes it sound like you are for blaming stolen bases on us not making the playoffs. You’re not looking at the overall picture though Dale. When people insist on believing that stolen bases cost us the season a “potential” 5 games is not going to make or break your season. I could go through those 5 games and try to determine what actually cost us those games too……which I may do now since you bring it up. Yeah we lost out by 1 game but if you want to say something cost us the season why not say David Wells cost us the season? He had 6 games where he gave up over 5 runs and pitched horrible. David Wells cost us more games than stolen bases….so blame him. All the point of this post is really to say that not 1 singular thing cost us the season like a lot of people tend to believe.

By: Your worst nightmare

Your worst nightmare — Fri, 14 Dec 2007 18:57:36 +0000

Rick,

a pitcher working with a guy on 2nd base has an entirely different set of circumstances to think about then with a runner on 1st. Double plays, bunt coverages, etc. When the runner is on 2nd base now the thinking is different the runner is in scoring position, the pitcher has to mix up signs with the catcher, depending on outs and game score it is a different factor alltogether.

I guarantee you sbs with 1 or nobody out hurt a lot worse than 2 outs, how many of those sbs that went on to score potentially could have been doubled off but the following batter hit a homerun? How many of the pitchers would have liked to pitch to the batter with no one on and not worry about putting 2 runners on base and giving in to a hitter who hit a homerun. There are so many factors going through a pitcher and catchers mind with no one on and with people in scoring position that your stats are not accurate no matter what information you throw out there. I know this a runner on first can only score on a homerun or 3B when a runner on 2nd can score on a 1B, 2B, 3B and HR not to mention an error or passedball. A runner on 1st can be doubled up on a ground ball, when a runner on 2nd or 3rd may score easily.

Plus didn’t we lose the wildcard over 1 game? SO 5 games is pretty important

By: The Sacrifice Bunt | 12-6 Sacrificial Links

The Sacrifice Bunt | 12-6 Sacrificial Links — Mon, 10 Dec 2007 01:36:49 +0000

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