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Comment on Me & Moorad by Around the Mission: 10/17 Padres Links

Around the Mission: 10/17 Padres Links — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 17:44:21 +0000

[...] Me & Moorad " Sdpads1The longest paragraph about a meeting with Padres CEO Jeff Moorad that you’ll find on the internets today. [...]

Comment on Jake Peavy Traded to White Sox…..again by The Sacrifice Bunt » Blog Archive » Host of hurlers from Chicago links

The Sacrifice Bunt » Blog Archive » Host of hurlers from Chicago links — Sat, 01 Aug 2009 02:17:03 +0000

[...] (November, 2008, h/t SDPads1) Don’t be surprised to see him in the big leagues at some point in 2009 — with his [...]

Comment on “No way!! That’s great…..WE LANDED ON THE MOON!” by Around the Mission: 7/23 Padres Links

Around the Mission: 7/23 Padres Links — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 22:10:55 +0000

[...] “No way!! That’s great…..WE LANDED ON THE MOON!” « Sdpads1 If they lost 10-0 then A) how did they have a lead going into the 7th and B) how did Nate Colbert hit a home run? Well thats a simple answer…neither happened. [...]

Comment on Portland Beavers by bstodden

bstodden — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 18:41:34 +0000

You definitely need to come catch some more Beavers games. PGE park makes for a great baseball experience and now that my friends and I have Padres gear (not just beavers gear), I promise you won’t be the only one in the park getting grief.

Comment on ESPN the Magazine by Childsplayx2

Childsplayx2 — Sat, 10 May 2008 03:37:30 +0000

I just came over from that article to see if you knew about this. Congrats on getting a little recognition.

Comment on Did stolen bases really hurt us last season??? by sdpads1

sdpads1 — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 16:13:36 +0000

Hey Marty thanks for the feedback but I think you fail to see the overall picture of this post as well as misunderstood the comments Maddux was making. First of all he says not to worry about the base runners and focus on the batter….which makes perfect sense to me….you get the batter out then there is no way that runner will score whether he is on first, second or third. You can steal 2nd or steal 3rd all you want but stealing home is another thing. And he says “runners who steal a base” not “all runners” like you mention. Second I am a big fan of tangotiger.net (thanks MB) and yes I have seen that chart before. Regardless this is a Padres blog and I did my research on the 2007 Padres (makes sense doesn’t it?) and the stats speak for themselves…..I didn’t make up steals or runs scored or runners thrown out….they actually happened last year. Was it a Mad Dog fluke that the one season he makes those comments it is the one season the results are extremely close? Possibly. It is a very small sample size going off of one season but there was no way I was going to do more than one season because that took me forever….I’m working on this year though as we speak so maybe at the end of the year the results will be much higher and then again maybe not.

Thanks for reading.

Comment on Did stolen bases really hurt us last season??? by Marty Winn

Marty Winn — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 14:13:56 +0000

Hopefully the chart is better formatted here:

RUN EXPECTANCY CHART
OUTS

Comment on Did stolen bases really hurt us last season??? by Marty Winn

Marty Winn — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 14:12:40 +0000

Maddux made it up. It is not accurate. More than 17% of all baserunners score, much more for those on 2B or 3B

Have you ever seen this chart? I’ll explain it down below.
RUN EXPECTANCY CHART
OUTS

RUNNERS 0 1 2———————————- 0.5165 0.2796 0.10751– 0.8968 0.5487 0.2370-2- 1.1385 0.6911 0.3502
12- 1.4693 0.9143 0.4433–3 1.5120 0.9795 0.37181-3 1.8228 1.1830 0.4931-23 2.0363 1.4144 0.6073123 2.3109 1.5279 0.7485
If you have a runner on only 2B the likelyhood is that you will score .35 runs if there are 2 outs, .69 if 1 out and 1.14 if no outs. The numbers go up for man on 2B or 2B and 3B.

Here is where Maddux gets close to being right. If there is a man on 1B who steals 2B the avg runs scored in the inning goes from .89 to 1.13 a 0.24 increase, with one out the increas is .15 runs with 2 outs it is .12 runs. Average all those out situations and you might come up with 0.17 run increase when giving up a steal of 2B. For stealing 3B it would be .38, .28, and .02 depending on 0,1,or 2 outs. That probably averages out a bit higher. Of course there are also double steals and lead runner only in 1st and 2nd situation stealing or stealing home but these are pretty rare cases.

There is also a chart at: http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902score.html that shows the chances of scoring just 1 run (does that particular runner score and how often?). This chart is particularly useful in extra innings where 1 run wins the game. Also I want to note that these charts change from year to year and park to park depending on scoring environment.

Shining the Light,
Marty Winn

Comment on Sorry by MB

MB — Thu, 13 Mar 2008 05:53:46 +0000

Another vacation, huh?

Just kidding, of course : ) I look forward to your return!

Comment on News & Notes by Stephanie

Stephanie — Fri, 08 Feb 2008 20:15:00 +0000

Kouzie was most definitely my favorite Padre of 07