Alright here we go!!

OK I admit it I’m a pretty superstitious guy when it comes to sports. As crazy as it sounds, if I wear a certain jersey or shirt to a game and my team gets lit up then I will refuse to wear that particular item again for quite sometime. If my team is doing good while I am watching the game on TV then I feel it is bad luck to change the channel, thus I am forced to watch at least 40 commercials of Matty V  & Mud hawking SDCCU and Valley View casino.  During the amazingly long 2 game winning streak we just got finished with, my thing was not shaving…..needless to say I don’t think anybody noticed my joyous stand to help my team with the 4 or so hairs coming off my face. So here I sit pondering what I can do now to snap this team out of its funk……AH THAT’S IT!!!! I could start posting on my blog again!! What an amazing idea!! Hey it couldn’t hurt……could it? This team couldn’t get much worse…….could it? NAH!!!

Anyways I know I’ve lost your guys trust by telling you I would start posting again more frequently at least 4 times but this time I mean it. I’ve got some stat related posts that I’ve been working on that should be up in the next couple of weeks and I’ll try to keep up on the “news” related stuff as well. I won’t get into all the moves here since it’s old news but I will make sure to update my roster pages soon. Also I just found out Paul DePodesta started his own blog (It Might Be Dangerous… You Go First). I definitely look forward to reading that site. Till next time!

ESPN the Magazine

Wow who would of thought that I’d get some big time recognition for my nerdiness. Check out this article (17%) that ESPN the magazine’s Tim Keown wrote about the post I did a while ago on the 2007 Padres and stolen bases (Did stolen bases really hurt us last season???). While you are at it check out the amazing article he did on Greg Maddux (How In The World Did This Guy Win 347 Games?). And a big Happy Birthday to the Mad Dog himself who turns 42 today.

PS-Not to toot my own horn or anything but KT himself even e-mailed me about this same post…..I think I may start posting on this here blog more frequently again.

Rosters…

I just wanted to let everyone know that the Padres roster page is complete and I added a Minor Leagues page with the rosters for Portland, San Antonio and Lake Elsinore already. I should have Fort Wayne and Eugene up this weekend as well.

WHAT?!?!

Yeah that’s right a new post. Not much insight though besides my bold predictions for this upcoming season (hopefully they are better than my football picks)

AL West
1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (are they still trying to call themselves that???)
2. Seattle Mariners
3. Oakland A’s
4. Texas Rangers

AL Central
1. Detroit Tigers
2. Cleveland Indians
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Minnesota Twins

AL East
1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees
3. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles

NL East
1. New York Mets
2. Philadelphia Phillies
3. Washington Nationals
4. Atlanta Braves
5. Florida Marlins

NL Central
1. Houston Astros
2. Chicago Cubs
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. St. Louis Cardinals
6. Pittsburgh Pirates

NL West
1. San Diego Padres
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Colorado Rockies
4. Los Angeles Dodgers
5. San Francisco Giants

Mets vs Diamondbacks
Padres vs Astros

Red Sox vs Indians
Tigers vs Angels

Indians vs Tigers
Padres vs Mets

Padres vs Tigers

NL Cy Young-Jake Peavy
NL MVP-Ryan Howard
NL ROY-Kosuke Fukudome

AL Cy Young-Justin Verlander
AL MVP-Alex Rodriguez
AL ROY-Clay Buchholz

There you have it….my picks for ‘08….tomorrow is opening day……GO PADRES.

Sorry

Sorry peeps but I went on a little vacation and forgot to post a little message on here letting you guys know. But I am now back and ready to go (especially since Spring Training is under way). Expect a lot more posts on here from now on.

 Small reminder……Padre single game tickets go on sale today!!

News & Notes

So the Padres are the 1st team to play a regular season game in Mexico (1996) & Hawaii (1997) and now will be the first team to play a exhibition game in China. It was announced on the 24th of January that the Padres & Dodgers will face off on March 15th and 16th. Needless to say it is highly unlikely that a majority of the starters will be playing so the Chinese fans will be blessed with “MLB Stars” such as Oscar Robles, Craig Stansberry, Callix Crabbe, Chan-Ho Park (minor league signing with LA), Angel Chavez & the ever popular Chin-Lung Hu. Watch out CHINA!!! Also to mix things up a bit the Padres will be the LAST team ever to play in the Hall of Fame game when they take on the Cubs on June 16th at Doubleday Field in Cooperstown.

In (somewhat) recent signing news….the Padres locked up KT until 2012. I love this deal. KT and this front office have done amazing work with what they have been given year in and year out lately and he defintely deserves this deal. They also avoided arbitration with pitcher Wil Ledezma, signing him to a 1 year $620,000.00 deal. While Josh Bard and Khalil Greene couldn’t come to terms with the team, so will be going to arbitration. They added a little depth to the outfield by signing OF Jody Gerut to a minor league deal. The 30 year old Gerut has been hobbled by knee injuries the past couple of years but before that was a nice up and coming player, so we’ll see if he can make the team this Spring.

The 2007 Padres Awards were handed out and the MVP went to shortstop Khalil Greene, Jake Peavy won the Pitcher of the Year award, Adrian Gonzalez won the Chairman’s award, Kevin Kouzmanoff won the Favorite New Padre award & Heath Bell won the Fireman’s award. For the minor league level our AA club cleaned house. Chase Headley won Player of the Year, Josh Geer won Pitcher of the Year, Randy Ready won Manager of the Year and Scott Littlefield was named scout of the year. All these awards have been talked about quite in depth on other sites and I’m a bit behind when it comes to news so I won’t get into it here.

Geoff over at Ducksnorts is doing a great series where he is getting “Our Best Guess for ‘08″ for all the players. I’m curious to see if us fans who watch this team day in and day out can out predict the experts.

MB over at Friar Forecast has been doing some projections as well (Projections: Starting Pitchers) and appears to be infatuated with Khalil Greene lately that you can see….
Here
Here
Here
And here

And lastly Corey over at Rich Folkers makes a bold prediction naming Chris Young the NL Cy Young award winner for 2008 (Chris Young, Cy Young winner?). Hey anything can happen. When healthy he is a great pitcher and he definitely has a chance. The pitching in the NL has (especially if this Santana trade is ever finalized) gotten a lot better this off season so it may be tough but by no means would I rule it out.
I’ve got about 2 more posts in my Last 4 Years series that I’m putting the finishing touches on now so that may be up either tonight or Monday. Only 14 more days till pitchers and catchers report!

McGwire a Padre????

Over at Corey Brock’s blog he has a new post in which he was chit chatting with KT yesterday and somehow the subject of, there once was a deal for Mark McGwire on the table, came up (McGwire was almost a Padre). Oh how I hate you Corey…now I must browse transactions, rosters & box scores from the wonderful years of 1995-1996 in which players such as Archi Cianfrocco, Bip Roberts & Jody Reed were roaming our fields to see who might have been involved in that deal between Kevin Towers and Sandy Alderson. Thanks a lot. Anyways onto the research….

Kevin Towers was hired as GM of the Padres on November 17th, 1995
Less than 2 months on the job could be around early January-January 16th 1996 but considering KT acquired Wally Joyner on December 21st, 1995 the offer for McGwire had to have happened before then. So I’m gonna set my range at early December-December 20th, 1995….or basically a month on the job.

Here are all the players who were on our roster in 1995 and were not with us in 1996

Pitchers
Andy Benes——-Traded to Mariners July 31st, 1995
Donnie Elliot——Released October 12th, 1995
Bill Krueger——-Released May 16th, 1995
Tim Mauser——-Granted Free Agency October 16th, 1995
Jeff Tabaka——-Traded to Astros July 19th, 1995
Brian Williams—-Granted Free Agency December 21st, 1995

Infielders
Ray Holbert——-Traded to the Astros October 10th, 1995
Tim Hyers———Traded to the Tigers November 14th, 1995
Roberto Petagine–Traded to the Mets March 17th, 1996
Eddie Williams—–Granted Free Agency December 21st, 1995

Outfielders
Billy Bean———-Granted Free Agency October 16th, 1995
Phil Clark———-Released November 13th, 1995
Ray McDavid——Claimed on Waivers December 21st, 1995
Melvin Nieves—–Traded March 22nd, 1996
Phil Plantier——-Released November 20th, 1995
Bip Roberts——-Traded December 21st, 1995

So Roberto Petagine, Ray McDavid, Melvin Nieves & Bip Roberts were obviously available for trade around that time. So let’s look at the A’s needs before we include some of these players in the deal.

The A’s almost completely restructured their major league team in 1996 going young and letting 23 out of the 44 players that played for them in 1995 go (via FA, trade, release, waivers, etc.). The majority being the pitching. At the time they still had Eckersley as their closer (traded to Cardinals on 2/13/96) and it seems as if Billy Taylor was waiting in the wings to replace him already, so it looks like Trevor was safe. It seemed like the rest of the A’s bullpen was pretty set too with the exception of adding Aaron Small (via waivers 1/29/96) & acquiring Steve Montgomery (via trade 2/13/96) & Jay Witasick (via trade 1/9/96). So it’s possible 1 reliever may have been included in the deal. My guess would be 25 year old Bryce Florie. He was coming off a solid season and was actually dealt during the season in ‘96 so we know he wasn’t untouchable. Also when you have a staff that consists of Doug Johns, Ariel Prieto, John Wasdin, Don Wengert & Steve Wojciechowski, I tend to believe he may have wanted some starters in return as well. At the time we had a staff that consisted of Andy Ashby, Joey Hamilton, Scott Sanders, Fernando Valenzuela & Glenn Dishman. I pretty sure Sandy didn’t want Dishman and his over 5 ERA, nor did he want the ageless wonder known only as Fernando…so that leaves Ashby, Hamilton & Sanders to choose from.

Andy Ashby (Age 28 in ‘95) 357 IP / 18-21 / 3.15 ERA / 6 CG / 271 K / 105 BB
Joey Hamilton (Age 25 in ‘95) 313 IP / 15-15 / 3.05 ERA / 3 CG / 184 K / 85 BB
Scott Sanders (Age 26 in ‘95) 201 IP / 9-13 / 4.57 ERA / 1 CG / 197 K / 79 BB
*Stats are the ‘94 & ‘95 seasons (previous 2) combined*

I personally wouldn’t have minded taking a shot on any of those 3, looking at their numbers. All were fairly young. All had fairly good control (k/bb of 2.58/2.16/2.49 respectively). Including 1 or possibly 2 (Sanders & Hamilton? or Sanders and Ashby?) in the deal is possible, but I would guess we’d only be willing to part with 1 if 4 other players are involved in the deal.

Now onto the field. With the signing of Rafael Bournigal & Torey Lovullo shortly after this proposed deal it was apparent that they needed depth in the INF. Obviously we know the Bipster was available via trade which leads me to believe he was also a part of the deal. The other weak point for the A’s was their OF. Mac Newfield was only 23 and coming off a pretty solid high average, high obp, high slg season in limited time. Plus he was dealt the following season for Greg Vaughn so he was available. Or the ever popular Melvin Nieves is a possibility as well. So here are my choices….without spending tooooo much time (IE: Minors) doing research on a trade that never happened.

1. Bip Roberts - they needed depth at 2B, SS & the OF and he was available via trade
2. Marc Newfield - they needed help in the OF, he was 23 and coming off a season in which he hit .309 with a .333 OBP & seemed to handle big league pitching better than Nieves
3. Scott Sanders - they badly needed starting pitching and he was 26 and coming off an OK year
4. Bryce Florie - he was dealt mid-season in ‘96 and was coming off a solid season
5. Dustin Hermanson - he was the top prospect in ‘95
6. Joey Hamilton - he was possibly the player who killed the deal…1 of the young starters was OK but not 2….or it could have been flip flopped with Joey going and Scotty Sanders being the 6th guy. The world may never know.

Then again this could have been a KT set up to see if people like me would try to figure it out…..oh well.

The Last 4 Years: Part 4 (Wins & Payroll Correlation)

So I recently finished up my first statistics class in college (of course I got an easy A) and learned quite a few things I could use for this here little blog of mine. Some people are always insisting the more you spend the more you are GUARANTEED to win. So my assignment for today is to determine A) is there a correlation and B) how strong it truly is. Like the other 3 parts of this series I will only be talking about the National League and the past 4 years (2004-2007). After inputting the win and payroll totals for all 16 teams into my wonderful TI calculator I got my answer. But first what does all this mean? Well basically correlation coefficients are measured on a scale from -1 to +1 and range from having an upward/positive trend to no trend to a downward/negative trend. In this case there is in fact a trend and it is upward (the more money you spend does in fact get you more wins) which I’m sure we all figured out without the handy help of Mr. TI calculator but what I really wanted to determine was exactly how strong that trend is? It turned out the correlation coefficient comes out to +.71. Which is fairly strong but by no means is overwhelming. Which basically means yes spending money helps to a point but it is no guarantee.

While I was at it I thought I’d figure out the expected win totals for each team based on their payroll. In other wards based on the averages I could determine how many wins a team should be getting based on their exact payroll. Then I subtracted the expected wins from the actual wins to see how each team is performing. Or who is doing the most with their money. Below is the rankings from best to worst.

1. San Diego Padres————-346 - 312.286 = +33.714
2. St. Louis Cardinals————366 - 333.852 = +32.148
3. Florida Marlins—————-315 - 292.560 = +22.440
4. Atlanta Braves—————-349 - 333.766 = +15.234
5. Philadelphia Phillies———-348 - 336.238 = +11.762
6. Houston Astros—————336 - 329.446 = +06.554
7. Milwaukee Brewers———-306 - 302.152 = +03.848
8. Colorado Rockies————-301 - 304.800 = -03.800
9. Los Angeles Dodgers———334 - 339.518 = -05.518
10. New York Mets————–339 - 345.806 = -06.806
11. Washington Nationals——-292 - 301.002 = -09.002
12. Cincinnati Reds————–301 - 310.614 = -09.614
13. Arizona Diamondbacks——294 - 311.722 = -17.722
14. Chicago Cubs—————-319 - 337.286 = -18.286
15. Pittsburgh Pirates———–274 - 294.272 = -20.272
16. San Francisco Giants——–313 - 333.448 = -20.448

So the Padres are the cream of the crop. Kudos to you KT, Sandy, DePo & Co. Based on their payroll of 246.68 million over the last 4 years they should have only won 312 games (avg 78 wins per season) but instead are almost 34 games over. The Cardinals are the only team that come close and over half of the NL is performing WORSE than they should be. Besides the Padres, not 1 team in the West is even in the positive, although the Rockies & Dodgers are on the verge. Also if you notice the teams toward the top are considered to have some of the best GM’s in the game. KT for San Diego, Jocketty in St. Louis, Beinfest in Florida, Schuerholz for Atlanta & Gillick for Philly (I know Jocketty & Schuerholz are gone now but this is from 04-07). I’ve always liked KT and thought he has done great with what he has been given (or not given in many cases). The pitching is strong year in and year out, the bench is normally solid and he has recently put together a great young team. I’m sure it hasn’t hurt having plenty of great baseball minds surrounding him too (former GM’s Sandy Alderson, Paul DePodesta, Ed Wade, Randy Smith & Ted Simmons).

So what have we learned today kids? That yes spending more money does in fact lead to more wins but there is no guarantee. So as long as you spend average type money, a smart front office is the key over the big bucks in the long run. Oh and we learned that Padres have a kick ass front office.

Only 24 more days till pitchers and catchers report!!!!!!!

Predictions Part 2

And that my friends is why this is a Padre-baseball blog and not a football blog. I couldn’t have been more wrong on both games. Oh well.

Predictions….

Chargers 24 - Patriots 17

Packers 31 - Giants 14